The good news is I didn’t bat .500 last week. The bad news is I still wasn’t bad enough to fade.
Three of my eight props cashed, leaving me at an underwhelming 22-26 on the year and showcasing a pretty solid regression from last year’s 63 percent hit rate. On the other hand, my leans went 4-0 for the second straight week to bring that section’s 2023 record up to … 15-12 and a hardly profitable 55.6 percent hit rate.
So yeah, by those powers combined I’m about as accurate as a coin toss. As a great man once said to Ebenezer Scrooge: “crap dang it, this sucks.” Welp, let’s flip some more quarters and see what we get. Official plays are in bold.
Jared Goff UNDER 253.5 passing yards. Goff’s rise has been based on efficiency, not volume; he’s only gone over this total twice in 2023 and in fewer than half his games in 2022. Now he’s got the league’s second-ranked defense, per DVOA.
Tua Tagovailoa longest pass OVER 38.5 yards. The Eagles’ safety rotation has been riddled with injuries, weakening their over-the-top coverage. That’s awful news against a big-play generator like the Dolphins. Tagovailoa’s hit this number in four of six games this season.
Alvin Kamara OVER 49.5 rushing yards. Yep, another Thursday night bet for a Friday column. If you think I’m adding these after the fact just to pump up my record, some important news: I’m 0-2 on these bets so far. But Kamara’s 3-0 on rushing for 50-plus yards this season, so this feels attainable.
Keaontay Ingram UNDER 39.5 rushing yards. Seattle’s got the league’s stingiest run defense and the Cardinals post-James Conner backfield has been a bit of a mess. Arizona may be playing from behind throughout this game, which could further crunch what’s an otherwise reasonable rushing total.
Bijan Robinson OVER 24.5 receiving yards. He’s hit this in all but one game so far in his NFL career. Pair with OVER 3.5 receptions.
Mark Andrews OVER 53.5 receiving yards. He’s got 214 in his last three games and the Lions have given up 39 receptions to opposing tight ends this season — third-most in the NFL.
Curtis Samuel OVER 34.5 receiving yards. Sam Howell likes him; Samuel’s had at least 42 yards in five of his six games this season.
Last week: 3-5 (.375)
Season to date: 22-26 (.458)
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
We’re light on leans this week. These are the bets I like … just not enough to officially include in the section above.
- Russell Wilson OVER 23.5 rushing yards. The Packers’ run defense, despite many attempts to fix it, still stinks. Wilson has been running more often lately in an attempt to jump-start his offense.
- Jerry Jeudy UNDER 45.5 receiving yards. An attainable number but an untrustable wideout.
- Romeo Doubs OVER 41.5 receiving yards. Have you seen how bad the Broncos defense is?
Last week: 4-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 15-12 (.556)
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